With the federal government shutdown delaying official employment data, many of us are relying on alternative indicators to gauge where the labor market stands.
And the signals are clear: the U.S. job market is cooling in most markets.
At Sherpa, we’re having conversations every day with employers and job seekers trying to make sense of mixed signals – rising layoffs in some industries, continued hiring in others, and an undercurrent of uncertainty as we move into the final quarter of 2025.
Let’s unpack what we know so far and discuss why Charlotte continues to be a bright spot in the national picture.
National Headwinds: A Cooling Labor Market
Even without the latest numbers from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, private-sector data points to a slowdown:
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Bank of America reports a decline in the number of active paychecks and a rise in unemployment claims.
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ADP surprised markets in September with a report showing 32,000 private-sector jobs lost — the first decline since 2020, according to The Washington Post.
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Moody’s Analytics described national hiring momentum as “essentially stalled.”
These trends, combined with headlines from companies like Goldman Sachs and Amazon announcing targeted layoffs, paint a picture of a labor market that’s subdued and waiting for direction.
Charlotte: A Regional Standout
While national trends are softening, Charlotte continues to demonstrate economic strength:
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The region’s employment growth stands at 4.3% year-over-year, compared to just ~2.4% nationally (Charlotte Regional Business Alliance).
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The local unemployment rate holds steady between 3.9–4.1%, still below the U.S. average of 4.3% (BLS).
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Charlotte’s economic mix — strong in finance, professional services, and technology – continues to attract and retain both talent and business investment.
“You can’t control the market, but you can control how you respond to its changes,” says Scott Pullen, Managing Director at Sherpa. “Through change, Charlotte continues to grow in almost every statistical category. In fact, while 20 states are in or near recession, North Carolina is one of just four states — alongside Texas, Florida, and Pennsylvania — that are expanding economically. We even earned another AAA credit rating.”
We see that resilience firsthand with our clients. Organizations across industries are still hiring – albeit more strategically.
The market for Accounting and Finance talent remains especially strong, and we’re seeing a growing interest in contract staffing as companies seek flexibility and business continuity during this uncertain phase.
What This Means for Employers
In a cooling national market, passive candidates become more cautious, and job postings don’t yield the same volume or quality as they did even six months ago.
Now is the time to:
✅ Refine your employer value proposition
✅ Partner with recruiters who understand both local trends and national shifts
✅ Be proactive, not reactive — especially for business-critical roles
What This Means for Job Seekers
While national opportunities may narrow, Charlotte remains a place of growth and potential. But competition is increasing — especially for high-skill roles.
Now is the time to:
💡 Reassess your career goals
💡 Understand how your industry is evolving
💡 Get clear on how to position your strengths in a changing market
At Sherpa, we’re helping professionals make these pivots every day, from CFOs exploring growth-stage ventures to marketing leaders scaling their impact to operations professionals retooling for tech-forward companies.
Final Thoughts
We don’t need to wait for a delayed BLS report to understand what’s happening — the signals are already clear. While the national labor market may be losing steam, Charlotte’s resilience continues to create opportunity for both employers and job seekers.
Whether you’re hiring top talent or planning your next career move, now’s the time to get strategic.
📬 Let’s talk. Visit www.sherpallc.com or send us a direct message to start the conversation.
